Cost shape and forecasting

Forecastable vs variable spend

Forecastable spend is fixed by an agreement for the period: fixed fees, committed quantities, scheduled amounts. Variable spend depends on what happens, such as consumption or time actually worked. Reporting them as one total destroys the distinction that makes either useful, because the reader cannot tell how much of the figure is a commitment and how much is a projection.

The Vendor Squeezer team. Last reviewed 2026-08-08. General guidance on contract structures, not legal advice, and not a statement about any particular vendor's terms.

The two questions a total is asked

A spend total is usually asked one of two questions. What are we obliged to pay, which drives budget and cash. And what will we probably pay, which drives planning. The first is knowable, the second is a projection, and one number cannot be both.

Splitting them also makes the total more defensible. A committed figure can be traced to agreements. A variable figure carries an assumption, and stating the assumption is what lets someone else check it.

Deriving the split rather than declaring it

Which side a contract falls on follows from its pricing model rather than from an opinion, which means the split can be derived rather than maintained by hand.

Which side of the split a contract falls on
Pricing modelSideWhy
FixedForecastableThe amount is stated for the period
Per unit with committed quantityForecastableRate and quantity are both fixed
Milestone basedForecastableAmounts are defined, timing may move
Usage basedVariableDepends on consumption not yet known
Time and materialsVariableDepends on effort not yet spent
HybridBothSplit the platform fee from the consumption element
UnknownNeitherReport as not established rather than assigning it

Minimum commitments sit on the forecastable side

A usage-based agreement with a minimum commitment has a forecastable floor even though the total is variable. The floor is owed regardless, so it belongs in the committed figure, with only the amount above it treated as variable. Splitting it that way is more accurate than putting the whole agreement on either side.

Questions to ask about your own agreement

  1. 1.How much of this portfolio is committed by agreement for the coming period?
  2. 2.How much is consumption-based, and what assumption is the projection using?
  3. 3.How many contracts have no pricing model recorded at all?
  4. 4.Do any variable agreements carry a minimum that belongs in the committed figure?
  5. 5.Does the number I am about to present say which parts are which?

Common questions

Does this mean I cannot give one total?

You can, as long as it is presented as a range or with the split shown alongside it. What causes damage is a single point figure whose composition is invisible.

Where does an unknown pricing model go?

Neither side. Count those contracts as records with pricing not established, so the gap is visible as work rather than being absorbed into a number.

Put this against your own vendors

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These guides describe contract structures that are common across vendors. They do not state any named vendor's prices, terms, renewal behaviour, or negotiating position, because those vary by agreement and are not ours to publish. Any figure shown is labelled as illustrative and is not drawn from a real agreement. Nothing here is legal advice.